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Patents Throughout the World Chapter 169 Turkey

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Patents Throughout the World Chapter 169 Turkey

Posted | Updated by Insights team:

Publication | Update:

Jun 2024
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Law At national level, the main sources of patent law are the: Industrial Property Code No. 6769...

Law

At national level, the main sources of patent law are the:

  1. Industrial Property Code No. 6769 (IP Code);
  2. Regulation on the Implementation of the IP Code;
  3. Regulation on Employees' Invention, Inventions Realised in Higher Education Institutions and Inventions Realised as a Result of Publicly Funded Projects; and
  4. Regulation on the Implementation of the European Patent Convention Regarding the Grant of European Patents in Turkey.

Conventions

Turkey is a party to almost all international treaties relating to intellectual property, including:

  1. Strasbourg Agreement Concerning the International Patent Classification 1971;
  2. Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Property 1883 (Paris Convention);
  3. Patent Cooperation Treaty 1970 (PCT);
  4. European Patent Convention 1973 (EPC); and
  5. WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights 1994 (TRIPS).

Types of patent

There are different types of patents according to the type of the invention which is the subject of the patent. However, there is not a single classification that is widely accepted among Turkish scholars or by the IP Code. The most common patent types can be listed as follows:

  1. Product Patents (patents where the subject of protection is directly the product), for example: active ingredient patents, formulation patents;
  2. Product Patent defined by procedure (product-by-process);
  3. Process Patents (patents in which the path followed to reach the product is protected); and
  4. Second Medical Use Patents (patents protecting a new use of a known product).

Rights of patentee

The patent owner has the following rights:

  1. Prevention and removal of consequences of patent infringing acts, which are listed under Article 141 of the IP Code as follows:
  2. Imitation of a patented product by manufacturing it fully or in part without the permission of the patent owner.
  3. To sell, distribute or trade in any other way products manufactured in violation of ownership rights, or to import, keep for sale or use such products or to suggest a contract about such products, with knowledge that the products are complete or partial imitations or while in a position to know they are such imitations.
  4. To use an invented method without the permission of the patent owner or to sell, distribute or trade-in any other way products that have been manufactured with direct use of the invented method without permission, or to import, keep for sale or use or suggest a contract about such products with knowledge that they were manufactured with the invented method without permission or while in a position to know they were manufactured in this way.
  5. Registration of the patent right on behalf of an unauthorized person.
  6. To extend contractual or compulsory licensing rights or to transfer such rights to third parties.
  7. Preventing third parties from supplying a person who is not entitled to perform/execute the patented invention, with means or tools that make it possible to perform or execute the patented invention, if it relates to an essential element of that invention (Article 86, IP Code); and
  8. Licensing its patent rights to the third parties.

Who may apply

According to Article 109 of the IP Code, the rights to a patent will belong to the inventor or his successor in title and will be transferable.

Where an invention has been made jointly by more than one person, unless foreseen otherwise by the parties, the right to request a patent will belong to them jointly. Where an invention has been made independently by several persons at the same time, the right to a patent will belong to the person who files the first application or who can claim an earlier priority right.

Articles 113 et seq. of the IP Code govern employee inventions and foresee compensation for inventors who are employees. If an employee makes an invention in the course of his duties for an enterprise or public administration, or an invention that is based to a large extent on the work and experience of the enterprise or public administration, or makes an invention in the course of an ongoing work relationship, this invention is acknowledged to be a service invention. If the employer claims full rights to the invention, all rights on the invention including the right to apply for a patent, will be automatically transferred to the employer at the time the request is notified to the employee.

Article 41 of the abolished Patent Decree-Law, was foreseeing that the inventions made by the university employees as a result of their scientific work and research, were free inventions. That is to say, the university employees were the owners of all of the material and moral rights on the invention. However, with the new IP Code, a system similar to the employee invention system is adopted. If the University claims full rights to the invention, including the right to apply for a patent, all the rights will automatically be transferred to the University.

What is patentable

As per Article 82/1 of the IP Code, the applicant must prove the following to obtain a patent:

  1. Novelty;
  2. Inventive step; and
  3. Industrial application.

What is not patentable

As per Article 82 of the IP Code the following are not considered as inventions and therefore cannot be patented:

  1. The discoveries, scientific theories, mathematical methods;
  2. The plans, methods and rules in relation to mental acts, business and game activities;
  3. Computer programmes;
  4. The literary and artistic works, scientific works, creations having an aesthetic characteristic; and
  5. The delivery of information.

The following are accepted as inventions yet cannot be protected by a patent:

  1. The inventions violating public order or morality;
  2. All kind of treatment methods including diagnosis and surgical methods that will be practiced on human or animal body;
  3. The plant and animal varieties or species or biological processes for producing or breeding plants and animals (except microbiological processes or products of them);
  4. The simple discovery of one of the elements of the human body, including a gene sequence; and
  5. The human cloning processes, the use of human embryos for industrial or commercial purposes, certain processes for modifying the human genetic code.

Novelty

An invention which is not included in the state of the art is accepted to be novel.

It is regulated that the state of the art is accepted to comprise information or data pertaining to the subject matter of the invention, accessible to the public in any part of the world, before the date of filing of the application for a patent by disclosure whether in writing, or orally, by use or in any other way. Other than this, the disclosures of national patent and utility model applications published on the date of the application or thereafter but dated back to before the application date are also considered as state of the art. However, pursuant to Article 83(5) of the IP Code, the content of these applications and documents which are considered to form the state of the art is not taken into account in the evaluation of the inventive step.

Likewise, Article 84 of the IP Code regulates ‘‘grace period’’ for declarations made 12 months before application for a patent or before priority date. Accordingly, specific declarations are not deemed to destroy patentability of an invention under certain conditions, if:

  1. The declaration is made by the inventor;
  2. The declaration is made by an authority to which patent application is submitted and the information declared by this authority:
  3. is referred in another application made by the applicant and the application is disclosed by the relevant authority although it should not; or
  4. is declared in an application filed by a third party who has acquired information directly or indirectly from the inventor without the knowledge or permission of the inventor;
  5. The declaration is made by a third person who has acquired information directly or indirectly from the inventor.

Documents required

Patent applications are examined and granted by the Turkish Patent and Trademark Office (““the Office””). The documents and/or information required for a patent application are as follows:

  1. The application form;
  2. The description explaining the subject of the invention;
  3. The claim or claims covering technical features of the invention claimed to be novel;
  4. The technical drawings referred to in the specification, claim or claims;
  5. The abstract; and
  6. The document showing that the application fee has been paid.

As of the date when all of the following minimum requirements are submitted to the Office, the patent application date becomes final, and the application is processed; all other required documents can be completed within two months from the application date without the need for any notification. The minimum requirements for according a date of filing are as follows:

  1. The request for granting a patent;
  2. The identity and contact information of the applicant; and
  3. A description written in Turkish or in one of the foreign languages specified in the second paragraph or a reference to a previous application.

Convention requirements

The international agreements to which Turkey is a party to, are directly applicable in Turkey and therefore are sources of patent law. In accordance with the Article 90 of the Constitution, in the case of a conflict between international agreements in the area of fundamental rights and freedoms duly put into effect and the domestic laws due to the differences in provisions of the same matter, the provisions of international agreement shall prevail.

Examination

After the patent application is filed, it is examined by the Office in terms of the formal requirements. If there is no deficiency in the application after the formal examination, the process of preparing the research report is started by the Office upon request of the applicant by paying the required fee.

A detailed search is carried out by the Office for the patent application in terms of novelty, inventive step and industrial applicability criteria. This search is prepared as a report by examining all the patent/non-patent technical literature around the world, and evaluating the documents closest to the invention made available before the application date.

During the examination phase, the Office examines whether the patent application is suitable for registration according to the IP Code. If it is determined that the patent application does not comply with the provisions of the IP Code, the applicant is notified to make changes in application provided that these changes do not exceed the scope of the application, and such notifications are repeated up to three times, if necessary.

Publication

If no early publication request is made with the application, the patent application is published in the patent bulletin at the end of 18 months following the application date.

Time limits for responding to official actions

The infringement and invalidation actions which should be filed before the Courts are governed by the procedural rules set in the Turkish Code of Civil Procedure No. 6100 (““CCP””). A party who is notified with an action will be entitled to file his responses to the action or a time extension request within two weeks as of the notification. Time extension can be granted for up to one month starting as of the termination of the official two weeks response term.

Opposition

Third parties can oppose a patent within six months as of the publication of the patent grant decision in the Official Bulletin before the Patent and Trademark Office, which is also called as the ““post grant opposition procedure.”” The grounds of opposition are as follows:

  1. The patent subject does not fulfil the patentability conditions;
  2. The invention has not been sufficiently disclosed; and
  3. The patent subject exceeds the scope of the application.

Annuities

Annual fees (annuities) required for patent application or patent protection are paid to the Office during the patent protection period.

The annual fee is paid on due date for each continuing year, starting at the end of the second year from the date of application. Annual fees not paid on due date can be paid within 6 months following the due date, with an additional fee.

Working

The patent owner or the person authorized by the owner has to use the invention protected by the patent. Otherwise, the patent may be subject to compulsory license in accordance with IP Code. The use declaration should be filed within a period of three years from the publication of the decision to grant the patent in the Bulletin or four years from the date of the patent application, whichever ends later.

Compulsory license; License of right

According to Article 129 of the IP Code, a compulsory licence will be granted, where any one of the following six circumstances exists:

  1. The non-use of the patent;
  2. The dependency on the subject matter of patents;
  3. The public interest;
  4. The export of pharmaceutical products to foreign countries experiencing public health problems in line with Law No. 6471. The protocol amending TRIPS was accepted in Turkey on 22 May 2013 by the Law No. 6471 Acceptance of the Protocol Amending the TRIPS Agreement;
  5. A plant breeder cannot develop a new type of plant without infringing a previous patent; or
  6. The patent holder engages in activities that prevent, distort or restrict competition while using the patent.

Article 130 of the IP Code, titled ‘‘Compulsory licensing in case of non-usage’’ extends the use criteria to hold that even if a patent has been used to some degree, if the use of the patent is not at a level that satisfies ‘‘the needs of the national market’’, a compulsory licence may be granted.

The Turkish Patent and Trademark Office publishes a list of patents for which no use declaration was filed within the time period foreseen in the IP Code. The list implies that a compulsory license opportunity might exist for those patents. Even if the term foreseen in the IP Code has expired and justification for not working is not submitted, it does not lead to an automatic compulsory license as the patent holder may prove working or justify not working during court proceedings.

Article 129 of the IP Code rules that the patent holder is allowed one month from the date of application for a compulsory licence to file submissions on his own position. Following this, the court will render a decision on whether to grant the licence within one month immediately following the filing of submissions.

Please see 169:20. License below for explanation on the license of right.

Marking

Wrongfully marking a product to claim that a patent is registered or pending may constitute unfair competition and in such case civil and criminal sanctions may ensue.

Assignment

According to Article 148 of the IP Code, a patent application or a patent can be assigned to a third party. The assignment agreement should be in written form and notarized in order to be a valid agreement. Article 148 of the IP Code provides that the assignment will be recorded in the Register. The assignment is published in the Official Patent Bulletin upon request of one of the parties when the official fee is paid, and all other conditions are fulfilled. If the assignment is not registered in the Registry, then the rights arising from the non-registered transaction cannot be enforced against bona fide third parties.

License

A patent application or a granted patent can be the subject of a license agreement. The general terms regarding licenses are set forth in Article 125 of the IP Code. The Article reads as follows:

  1. The patent application or the patent may become the subject of a licensing agreement.
  2. Licenses may be exclusive or non-exclusive. Licenses are non-exclusive unless stated otherwise in the licensing agreement. The licensor can use the patented invention for their own purposes or can issue licenses to third parties. In the case of an exclusive license the licensor can neither grant licenses to other third parties nor use the license himself unless this right has been explicitly reserved.
  3. The contractual license owners are neither allowed to transfer the license rights to third parties nor to grant secondary licences, unless agreed otherwise in the licensing agreement.
  4. The contractual licensee can freely use the patented invention for the entire patent term, unless agreed otherwise in the licensing agreement. The licensee must comply with the terms of the licensing agreement. In case of contravention, patent owners can claim their patent rights against their licensees.

Accordingly, patent license agreements transfer the rights to exercise some or all of the monopolistic rights to a third party. Yet, the moral rights on the patent cannot be transferred with this agreement, and the patent owner preserves his title as a rights holder. It is at the complete discretion of the patentee to select the rights that will be subject to the license agreement and limit the agreement as he wishes.

Duration

A patent is valid and enforceable for a term of 20 years from the application date and until a final revocation decision on the patent.

Extension and restoration

The 20 years protection term of the patent is not extendable. The term of patent protection cannot be extended and supplementary protection certificates (SPCs) or equivalent protection are not available for patents protecting pharmaceutical and agricultural products.

If the annual fee and the additional fee are not paid within 6 months following the due date, the application will be deemed invalid. In accordance with the IP Code, the application may become valid again by paying the compensation fee within two months following the notification made by the Office to the applicant that the patent right has expired.

Termination of patent

 According to Article 140 of the IP Code, a patent right will terminate upon expiration of the 20 years protection term, waiver of the patent right or failure to make annual fee payments. The termination will have a prospective effect, in contrast to the retroactive effect of invalidation.

Invalidity of the patent on the other hand has a retroactive effect and the patent right will deem to have never existed. As per Article 138 of the IP Code, patent invalidity actions can be filed against the person recorded as the patent owner in the Register during the term of the patent and within five years after the patent has expired before the competent Courts.

Infringement

A patent infringement action can be filed against the direct infringers of a patent (Article 141, IP Code). The direct infringer of a patent is the person who:

  1. Produces the patented product wholly or partially;
  2. Knows or should have known that the product is a complete or partial imitation of a patented product and sells, distributes, carries, or trades in the infringing product;
  3. Uses a patented method or commercializes a product that is directly produced as a result of the patented method;
  4. Without permission or assignment of rights, grants a licence to a third party, or usurps patent rights; and
  5. Seizes the patent rights.

The claimant must establish that the defendant committed at least one of the acts described above.

A patent owner can also prevent third parties from providing the elements and instruments that enable the implementation of the patented invention and constitute the essence of the invention to persons who are not authorised to use the patented invention (Article 86, IP Code). The third party must have known that these elements or instruments were sufficient to implement the invention and would be used for these purposes. However, this does not apply when the means or tools are always available on the market (unless the third party induces the other party to perform or execute the patented invention).

On the other hand, there are currently no provisions on inducement of infringement.

The doctrine of equivalents is governed by Article 89/5 of the IP Code. In determining the scope of protection conferred by a patent, the elements performing substantially the same function, performing that function in a substantially similar manner, and giving the same result as the element as expressed in the claim(s), should generally be deemed to be equivalent to the elements as expressed in the claim(s). Finally, there is no criminal enforcement of patent rights under Turkish Law.

Infringement action should be filed against the party who engaged with the infringing act before the competent Courts. A claim for patent infringement may be raised as long as the infringement and the protection term of the patent continue. However, if there is a terminated infringing act at stake, according to Article 72 of the Turkish Code of Obligations, the infringement action has to be filed within two years as of the date of notice of the terminated infringing act and within ten years as of the notice of the infringing act in any case.

 

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Objectives and Study Scope

This study has assimilated knowledge and insight from business and subject-matter experts, and from a broad spectrum of market initiatives. Building on this research, the objectives of this market research report is to provide actionable intelligence on opportunities alongside the market size of various segments, as well as fact-based information on key factors influencing the market- growth drivers, industry-specific challenges and other critical issues in terms of detailed analysis and impact.

The report in its entirety provides a comprehensive overview of the current global condition, as well as notable opportunities and challenges. The analysis reflects market size, latest trends, growth drivers, threats, opportunities, as well as key market segments. The study addresses market dynamics in several geographic segments along with market analysis for the current market environment and future scenario over the forecast period. The report also segments the market into various categories based on the product, end user, application, type, and region.
The report also studies various growth drivers and restraints impacting the  market, plus a comprehensive market and vendor landscape in addition to a SWOT analysis of the key players.  This analysis also examines the competitive landscape within each market. Market factors are assessed by examining barriers to entry and market opportunities. Strategies adopted by key players including recent developments, new product launches, merger and acquisitions, and other insightful updates are provided.

Research Process & Methodology

...

We leverage extensive primary research, our contact database, knowledge of companies and industry relationships, patent and academic journal searches, and Institutes and University associate links to frame a strong visibility in the markets and technologies we cover.

We draw on available data sources and methods to profile developments. We use computerised data mining methods and analytical techniques, including cluster and regression modelling, to identify patterns from publicly available online information on enterprise web sites.
Historical, qualitative and quantitative information is obtained principally from confidential and proprietary sources, professional network, annual reports, investor relationship presentations, and expert interviews, about key factors, such as recent trends in industry performance and identify factors underlying those trends - drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges influencing the growth of the market, for both, the supply and demand sides.
In addition to our own desk research, various secondary sources, such as Hoovers, Dun & Bradstreet, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Statista, are referred to identify key players in the industry, supply chain and market size, percentage shares, splits, and breakdowns into segments and subsegments with respect to individual growth trends, prospects, and contribution to the total market.

Research Portfolio Sources:

  • BBC Monitoring

  • BMI Research: Company Reports, Industry Reports, Special Reports, Industry Forecast Scenario

  • CIMB: Company Reports, Daily Market News, Economic Reports, Industry Reports, Strategy Reports, and Yearbooks

  • Dun & Bradstreet: Country Reports, Country Riskline Reports, Economic Indicators 5yr Forecast, and Industry Reports

  • EMIS: EMIS Insight and EMIS Dealwatch

  • Enerdata: Energy Data Set, Energy Market Report, Energy Prices, LNG Trade Data and World Refineries Data

  • Euromoney: China Law and Practice, Emerging Markets, International Tax Review, Latin Finance, Managing Intellectual Property, Petroleum Economist, Project Finance, and Euromoney Magazine

  • Euromonitor International: Industry Capsules, Local Company Profiles, Sector Capsules

  • Fitch Ratings: Criteria Reports, Outlook Report, Presale Report, Press Releases, Special Reports, Transition Default Study Report

  • FocusEconomics: Consensus Forecast Country Reports

  • Ken Research: Industry Reports, Regional Industry Reports and Global Industry Reports

  • MarketLine: Company Profiles and Industry Profiles

  • OECD: Economic Outlook, Economic Surveys, Energy Prices and Taxes, Main Economic Indicators, Main Science and Technology Indicators, National Accounts, Quarterly International Trade Statistics

  • Oxford Economics: Global Industry Forecasts, Country Economic Forecasts, Industry Forecast Data, and Monthly Industry Briefings

  • Progressive Digital Media: Industry Snapshots, News, Company Profiles, Energy Business Review

  • Project Syndicate: News Commentary

  • Technavio: Global Market Assessment Reports, Regional Market Assessment Reports, and Market Assessment Country Reports

  • The Economist Intelligence Unit: Country Summaries, Industry Briefings, Industry Reports and Industry Statistics

Global Business Reviews, Research Papers, Commentary & Strategy Reports

  • World Bank

  • World Trade Organization

  • The Financial Times

  • The Wall Street Journal

  • The Wall Street Transcript

  • Bloomberg

  • Standard & Poor’s Industry Surveys

  • Thomson Research

  • Thomson Street Events

  • Reuter 3000 Xtra

  • OneSource Business

  • Hoover’s

  • MGI

  • LSE

  • MIT

  • ERA

  • BBVA

  • IDC

  • IdExec

  • Moody’s

  • Factiva

  • Forrester Research

  • Computer Economics

  • Voice and Data

  • SIA / SSIR

  • Kiplinger Forecasts

  • Dialog PRO

  • LexisNexis

  • ISI Emerging Markets

  • McKinsey

  • Deloitte

  • Oliver Wyman

  • Faulkner Information Services

  • Accenture

  • Ipsos

  • Mintel

  • Statista

  • Bureau van Dijk’s Amadeus

  • EY

  • PwC

  • Berg Insight

  • ABI research

  • Pyramid Research

  • Gartner Group

  • Juniper Research

  • MarketsandMarkets

  • GSA

  • Frost and Sullivan Analysis

  • McKinsey Global Institute

  • European Mobile and Mobility Alliance

  • Open Europe

M&A and Risk Management | Regulation

  • Thomson Mergers & Acquisitions

  • MergerStat

  • Profound

  • DDAR

  • ISS Corporate Governance

  • BoardEx

  • Board Analyst

  • Securities Mosaic

  • Varonis

  • International Tax and Business Guides

  • CoreCompensation

  • CCH Research Network

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Forecast methodology

The future outlook “forecast” is based on a set of statistical methods such as regression analysis, industry specific drivers as well as analyst evaluations, as well as analysis of the trends that influence economic outcomes and business decision making.
The Global Economic Model is covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. We aim update our market forecast to include the latest market developments and trends.

Forecasts, Data modelling and indicator normalisation

Review of independent forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables by the following organizations provide a holistic overview of the range of alternative opinions:

  • Cambridge Econometrics (CE)

  • The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)

  • Experian Economics (EE)

  • Oxford Economics (OE)

As a result, the reported forecasts derive from different forecasters and may not represent the view of any one forecaster over the whole of the forecast period. These projections provide an indication of what is, in our view most likely to happen, not what it will definitely happen.

Short- and medium-term forecasts are based on a “demand-side” forecasting framework, under the assumption that supply adjusts to meet demand either directly through changes in output or through the depletion of inventories.
Long-term projections rely on a supply-side framework, in which output is determined by the availability of labour and capital equipment and the growth in productivity.
Long-term growth prospects, are impacted by factors including the workforce capabilities, the openness of the economy to trade, the legal framework, fiscal policy, the degree of government regulation.

Direct contribution to GDP
The method for calculating the direct contribution of an industry to GDP, is to measure its ‘gross value added’ (GVA); that is, to calculate the difference between the industry’s total pre­tax revenue and its total bought­in costs (costs excluding wages and salaries).

Forecasts of GDP growth: GDP = CN+IN+GS+NEX

GDP growth estimates take into account:

  • Consumption, expressed as a function of income, wealth, prices and interest rates;

  • Investment as a function of the return on capital and changes in capacity utilization; Government spending as a function of intervention initiatives and state of the economy;

  • Net exports as a function of global economic conditions.

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Market Quantification
All relevant markets are quantified utilizing revenue figures for the forecast period. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) within each segment is used to measure growth and to extrapolate data when figures are not publicly available.

Revenues

Our market segments reflect major categories and subcategories of the global market, followed by an analysis of statistical data covering national spending and international trade relations and patterns. Market values reflect revenues paid by the final customer / end user to vendors and service providers either directly or through distribution channels, excluding VAT. Local currencies are converted to USD using the yearly average exchange rates of local currencies to the USD for the respective year as provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.

Industry Life Cycle Market Phase

Market phase is determined using factors in the Industry Life Cycle model. The adapted market phase definitions are as follows:

  • Nascent: New market need not yet determined; growth begins increasing toward end of cycle

  • Growth: Growth trajectory picks up; high growth rates

  • Mature: Typically fewer firms than growth phase, as dominant solutions continue to capture the majority of market share and market consolidation occurs, displaying lower growth rates that are typically on par with the general economy

  • Decline: Further market consolidation, rapidly declining growth rates

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The Global Economic Model
The Global Economic Model brings together macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts for quantifying the key relationships.

The model is a hybrid statistical model that uses macroeconomic variables and inter-industry linkages to forecast sectoral output. The model is used to forecast not just output, but prices, wages, employment and investment. The principal variables driving the industry model are the components of final demand, which directly or indirectly determine the demand facing each industry. However, other macroeconomic assumptions — in particular exchange rates, as well as world commodity prices — also enter into the equation, as well as other industry specific factors that have been or are expected to impact.

  • Vector Auto Regression (VAR) statistical models capturing the linear interdependencies among multiple time series, are best used for short-term forecasting, whereby shocks to demand will generate economic cycles that can be influenced by fiscal and monetary policy.

  • Dynamic-Stochastic Equilibrium (DSE) models replicate the behaviour of the economy by analyzing the interaction of economic variables, whereby output is determined by supply side factors, such as investment, demographics, labour participation and productivity.

  • Dynamic Econometric Error Correction (DEEC) modelling combines VAR and DSE models by estimating the speed at which a dependent variable returns to its equilibrium after a shock, as well as assessing the impact of a company, industry, new technology, regulation, or market change. DEEC modelling is best suited for forecasting.

Forecasts of GDP growth per capita based on these factors can then be combined with demographic projections to give forecasts for overall GDP growth.
Wherever possible, publicly available data from official sources are used for the latest available year. Qualitative indicators are normalised (on the basis of: Normalised x = (x - Min(x)) / (Max(x) - Min(x)) where Min(x) and Max(x) are, the lowest and highest values for any given indicator respectively) and then aggregated across categories to enable an overall comparison. The normalised value is then transformed into a positive number on a scale of 0 to 100. The weighting assigned to each indicator can be changed to reflect different assumptions about their relative importance.

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The principal explanatory variable in each industry’s output equation is the Total Demand variable, encompassing exogenous macroeconomic assumptions, consumer spending and investment, and intermediate demand for goods and services by sectors of the economy for use as inputs in the production of their own goods and services.

Elasticities
Elasticity measures the response of one economic variable to a change in another economic variable, whether the good or service is demanded as an input into a final product or whether it is the final product, and provides insight into the proportional impact of different economic actions and policy decisions.
Demand elasticities measure the change in the quantity demanded of a particular good or service as a result of changes to other economic variables, such as its own price, the price of competing or complementary goods and services, income levels, taxes.
Demand elasticities can be influenced by several factors. Each of these factors, along with the specific characteristics of the product, will interact to determine its overall responsiveness of demand to changes in prices and incomes.
The individual characteristics of a good or service will have an impact, but there are also a number of general factors that will typically affect the sensitivity of demand, such as the availability of substitutes, whereby the elasticity is typically higher the greater the number of available substitutes, as consumers can easily switch between different products.
The degree of necessity. Luxury products and habit forming ones, typically have a higher elasticity.
Proportion of the budget consumed by the item. Products that consume a large portion of the consumer’s budget tend to have greater elasticity.
Elasticities tend to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behaviour.
Finally, if the product or service is an input into a final product then the price elasticity will depend on the price elasticity of the final product, its cost share in the production costs, and the availability of substitutes for that good or service.

Prices
Prices are also forecast using an input-output framework. Input costs have two components; labour costs are driven by wages, while intermediate costs are computed as an input-output weighted aggregate of input sectors’ prices. Employment is a function of output and real sectoral wages, that are forecast as a function of whole economy growth in wages. Investment is forecast as a function of output and aggregate level business investment.

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