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Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) | Impact on Sectors and Companies

Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) | Impact on Sectors and Companies

Posted | Updated by Insights team:
Dr. Evangelo Damigos; PhD | Head of Digital Futures Research Desk
  • Connected Intelligence
  • Sustainable Growth and Tech Trends
  • Emerging Technologies


Publication | Update: Sep 2020
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The traditional model of static spectrum access supports an industry structure in which wireless services are segregated into distinct, well-defined value chain silos. Each service is provided by purpose-built networks employing equipment dedicated to that narrow class of applications and operating in dedicated spectrum bands. The result is a number of distinct radio system architectures.

According to the article, “The Path to Market Success for Dynamic Spectrum Access Technology,” of Dr. John M. Chapin and Dr. William H. Lehr, DSA technology promotes both the vertical disintegration and horizontal integration of the existing wireless service market silos, driving the same sort of platform convergence that has been occurring in wired communication services.

DSA makes it possible to unbundle the investment in spectrum rights, the operation of a mobile network, and the offering of mobile services.

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Market dynamics expected to result from widespread use of dynamic spectrum access technology

New types of intermediaries may emerge to exploit these opportunities, including a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) that operates a service in multiple bands; spectrum brokers that specialize in managing the transference of access rights in secondary markets; or vendors of customer equipment that supports the viral deployment of end-user provisioned ad hoc or cooperative mesh networks.

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Feedback loops for growth in use of dynamic spectrum access.

DSA may shift opportunities from wireless operators toward tech companies unless the former become DIGITECCS. 

According to Dalibor Vavruska, Citi’s Global Head of Digital Connectivity Strategy, when considering the potential impact of DSA on prospects for different sectors and companies, we should bear in mind that the technology is in a relatively early stage, hence it may be hard to predict its impact.

Different scenarios are still possible depending on the success of the technology and regulatory developments but also strategic priorities of the key players.

Consider the following potential impacts:

Global tech: Big tech, but also smaller innovative tech companies, may benefit from (a) opportunities to supply technologies and skills to manage DSA platforms; (b) opportunities to play a role in creating Airbnb- or Uber-style shared wireless economies; (c) more bandwidth made available by DSA to users globally, which would expand the usage of OTT products; (d) easier opportunities to directly enter parts of the wireless market when needed (e.g., for specific IoT opportunities); (e) fragmentation of the wireless industry and weakening gatekeeper power of wireless operators even if net neutrality is not fully enforced; and (f) possible opportunities to use the disruptive threat of DSA to negotiate future relationships between OTTs and the wireless industry.   

Telco equipment vendors: Equipment vendors could benefit from the need for more technologically-advanced equipment, although they also have exposure to disruptive risks in a hopefully unlikely scenario of DSA’s disruption outweighing its benefits.

Industrial & service companies: Innovative industrial/service companies may find it easier to build and operate their private networks.

Wireless MNOs (Mobile Network Operators): Wireless MNOs may see their business challenged by harder access to exclusive spectrum and more disruptive competition, both on the regional level and from outside of the industry. The degree of these challenges will depend on various factors, including the spectrum allocations, business models, regulations, disruptor activity, and availability of shared fiber infrastructure. We suggest the MNOs use their (possibly temporary) network and spectrum advantages to build more tech-savvy and service-focused business (we call this DIGITECCS).  However, MNOs could also take an advantage of DSA, which should give them the opportunity to access more spectrum and secure priority rights to such spectrum selectively in regions where they need it. Similar to legacy fixed-line incumbents such as AT&T and Deutsche Telekom, which invested into wireless in very early stages partially to hedge themselves against future disruptive trends, we can envisage wireless operators today potentially investing into new technologies and businesses, including those linked to DSA, for the same reasons.

Wireless MVNOs (Mobile Virtual Network Operators): The classical MVNOs and the disruptive role they play may become less needed and appealing under DSA. That said, MVNOs, assuming they have sufficient strategic and capital backing, could also aim at becoming DIGITECCS.

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Objectives and Study Scope

This study has assimilated knowledge and insight from business and subject-matter experts, and from a broad spectrum of market initiatives. Building on this research, the objectives of this market research report is to provide actionable intelligence on opportunities alongside the market size of various segments, as well as fact-based information on key factors influencing the market- growth drivers, industry-specific challenges and other critical issues in terms of detailed analysis and impact.

The report in its entirety provides a comprehensive overview of the current global condition, as well as notable opportunities and challenges. The analysis reflects market size, latest trends, growth drivers, threats, opportunities, as well as key market segments. The study addresses market dynamics in several geographic segments along with market analysis for the current market environment and future scenario over the forecast period. The report also segments the market into various categories based on the product, end user, application, type, and region.
The report also studies various growth drivers and restraints impacting the  market, plus a comprehensive market and vendor landscape in addition to a SWOT analysis of the key players.  This analysis also examines the competitive landscape within each market. Market factors are assessed by examining barriers to entry and market opportunities. Strategies adopted by key players including recent developments, new product launches, merger and acquisitions, and other insightful updates are provided.

Research Process & Methodology

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We leverage extensive primary research, our contact database, knowledge of companies and industry relationships, patent and academic journal searches, and Institutes and University associate links to frame a strong visibility in the markets and technologies we cover.

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Forecast methodology

The future outlook “forecast” is based on a set of statistical methods such as regression analysis, industry specific drivers as well as analyst evaluations, as well as analysis of the trends that influence economic outcomes and business decision making.
The Global Economic Model is covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. We aim update our market forecast to include the latest market developments and trends.

Forecasts, Data modelling and indicator normalisation

Review of independent forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables by the following organizations provide a holistic overview of the range of alternative opinions:

  • Cambridge Econometrics (CE)

  • The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR)

  • Experian Economics (EE)

  • Oxford Economics (OE)

As a result, the reported forecasts derive from different forecasters and may not represent the view of any one forecaster over the whole of the forecast period. These projections provide an indication of what is, in our view most likely to happen, not what it will definitely happen.

Short- and medium-term forecasts are based on a “demand-side” forecasting framework, under the assumption that supply adjusts to meet demand either directly through changes in output or through the depletion of inventories.
Long-term projections rely on a supply-side framework, in which output is determined by the availability of labour and capital equipment and the growth in productivity.
Long-term growth prospects, are impacted by factors including the workforce capabilities, the openness of the economy to trade, the legal framework, fiscal policy, the degree of government regulation.

Direct contribution to GDP
The method for calculating the direct contribution of an industry to GDP, is to measure its ‘gross value added’ (GVA); that is, to calculate the difference between the industry’s total pre­tax revenue and its total bought­in costs (costs excluding wages and salaries).

Forecasts of GDP growth: GDP = CN+IN+GS+NEX

GDP growth estimates take into account:

  • Consumption, expressed as a function of income, wealth, prices and interest rates;

  • Investment as a function of the return on capital and changes in capacity utilization; Government spending as a function of intervention initiatives and state of the economy;

  • Net exports as a function of global economic conditions.

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Market Quantification
All relevant markets are quantified utilizing revenue figures for the forecast period. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) within each segment is used to measure growth and to extrapolate data when figures are not publicly available.

Revenues

Our market segments reflect major categories and subcategories of the global market, followed by an analysis of statistical data covering national spending and international trade relations and patterns. Market values reflect revenues paid by the final customer / end user to vendors and service providers either directly or through distribution channels, excluding VAT. Local currencies are converted to USD using the yearly average exchange rates of local currencies to the USD for the respective year as provided by the IMF World Economic Outlook Database.

Industry Life Cycle Market Phase

Market phase is determined using factors in the Industry Life Cycle model. The adapted market phase definitions are as follows:

  • Nascent: New market need not yet determined; growth begins increasing toward end of cycle

  • Growth: Growth trajectory picks up; high growth rates

  • Mature: Typically fewer firms than growth phase, as dominant solutions continue to capture the majority of market share and market consolidation occurs, displaying lower growth rates that are typically on par with the general economy

  • Decline: Further market consolidation, rapidly declining growth rates

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The Global Economic Model
The Global Economic Model brings together macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts for quantifying the key relationships.

The model is a hybrid statistical model that uses macroeconomic variables and inter-industry linkages to forecast sectoral output. The model is used to forecast not just output, but prices, wages, employment and investment. The principal variables driving the industry model are the components of final demand, which directly or indirectly determine the demand facing each industry. However, other macroeconomic assumptions — in particular exchange rates, as well as world commodity prices — also enter into the equation, as well as other industry specific factors that have been or are expected to impact.

  • Vector Auto Regression (VAR) statistical models capturing the linear interdependencies among multiple time series, are best used for short-term forecasting, whereby shocks to demand will generate economic cycles that can be influenced by fiscal and monetary policy.

  • Dynamic-Stochastic Equilibrium (DSE) models replicate the behaviour of the economy by analyzing the interaction of economic variables, whereby output is determined by supply side factors, such as investment, demographics, labour participation and productivity.

  • Dynamic Econometric Error Correction (DEEC) modelling combines VAR and DSE models by estimating the speed at which a dependent variable returns to its equilibrium after a shock, as well as assessing the impact of a company, industry, new technology, regulation, or market change. DEEC modelling is best suited for forecasting.

Forecasts of GDP growth per capita based on these factors can then be combined with demographic projections to give forecasts for overall GDP growth.
Wherever possible, publicly available data from official sources are used for the latest available year. Qualitative indicators are normalised (on the basis of: Normalised x = (x - Min(x)) / (Max(x) - Min(x)) where Min(x) and Max(x) are, the lowest and highest values for any given indicator respectively) and then aggregated across categories to enable an overall comparison. The normalised value is then transformed into a positive number on a scale of 0 to 100. The weighting assigned to each indicator can be changed to reflect different assumptions about their relative importance.

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The principal explanatory variable in each industry’s output equation is the Total Demand variable, encompassing exogenous macroeconomic assumptions, consumer spending and investment, and intermediate demand for goods and services by sectors of the economy for use as inputs in the production of their own goods and services.

Elasticities
Elasticity measures the response of one economic variable to a change in another economic variable, whether the good or service is demanded as an input into a final product or whether it is the final product, and provides insight into the proportional impact of different economic actions and policy decisions.
Demand elasticities measure the change in the quantity demanded of a particular good or service as a result of changes to other economic variables, such as its own price, the price of competing or complementary goods and services, income levels, taxes.
Demand elasticities can be influenced by several factors. Each of these factors, along with the specific characteristics of the product, will interact to determine its overall responsiveness of demand to changes in prices and incomes.
The individual characteristics of a good or service will have an impact, but there are also a number of general factors that will typically affect the sensitivity of demand, such as the availability of substitutes, whereby the elasticity is typically higher the greater the number of available substitutes, as consumers can easily switch between different products.
The degree of necessity. Luxury products and habit forming ones, typically have a higher elasticity.
Proportion of the budget consumed by the item. Products that consume a large portion of the consumer’s budget tend to have greater elasticity.
Elasticities tend to be greater over the long run because consumers have more time to adjust their behaviour.
Finally, if the product or service is an input into a final product then the price elasticity will depend on the price elasticity of the final product, its cost share in the production costs, and the availability of substitutes for that good or service.

Prices
Prices are also forecast using an input-output framework. Input costs have two components; labour costs are driven by wages, while intermediate costs are computed as an input-output weighted aggregate of input sectors’ prices. Employment is a function of output and real sectoral wages, that are forecast as a function of whole economy growth in wages. Investment is forecast as a function of output and aggregate level business investment.

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